Section 7.03 - Demand Forecasts by Electric Companies(1)Scope and Purpose. 980 CMR 7.03 sets forth the requirements for forecasts of demand which every electric company must meet in each long-range forecast. A long-range forecast, including a demand forecast, must be filed on the dates set forth in 980 CMR 7.02(3)(a). Every electric company must file a long-range forecast. Forecasts of demand shall be submitted and reviewed so that the Council may better determine whether plans for new facilities as proposed by electric companies are in conformity with the energy, environmental and economic policies of the Commonwealth.(2)Description of Agreements.(a) A long-range forecast shall include summary descriptions of all existing agreements with other electric companies relating to joint planning or joint forecasting of electric power needs, to construction of future facilities, or to the purchase or sale of electric power or reserve capacity. This description shall include: 1. the name of the parties to each agreement, identifying the role of each party;2. the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission or Massachusetts Depart- ment of Public Utilities Docket or File Number, if any, associated with the agreement;3. the commencement and termination dates of each agreement;4. for agreements for the purchase or sale of electricity, the amount of power that will or may be bought or sold in each year covered by the long-range forecast, expressed in MW and/or MWH (if no MW or MWH figure is expressed in the contract, the forecasting company shall estimate the MW or MWH requirements needed to fulfill the contract); and5. for agreements of the joint planning or forecasting of electricity needs, a summary of the provisions of the agreement.(b) For the purposes of 980 CMR 7.03(2) the term "existing agreements" shall include such contracts, letters of intent, and precedent agreements as contain legal commitments. A company may at any time petition the Council by submitting a contract, letter of intent, precedent agreement or other agreement for a determination whether it is an existing agreement as defined in this Rule. The Council may require further information and shall within 60 days of the petition issue a determination. A company may petition in the alternative for a determination pursuant to this paragraph that an item is not an existing agreement or for a determination pursuant to 980 CMR 4.04(3) that the item is exempt from public access; in such event the Council shall protect the confidentiality of the item as provided by 980 CMR 4.04(4).(3)Demand Forecasting Requirements. Each long-range forecast shall meet the requirements specified in 980 CMR 7.03(4) through (7).
(4)Time Frame. (a) Except as provided by 980 CMR 7.03(2) or (3), the period of time to be covered by the forecast shall include: 1. the five calendar years preceding the year in which the forecast is submitted, for purposes of establishing historical baseline data for each of the categories of information to be included in the forecast; and2. at least the succeeding ten calendar years (where a company seeks approval of a facility more than ten years prior to the expected date of operation, it shall extend its forecast by the appropriate number of years).(b) For purposes of the forecast required to be filed on or before May 1, 1976, the period of time to be covered shall, if the company forecasts on a calendar year basis, include: 1. the years 1970 through 1974 for historical purposes;2. the year 1975 as the current year; and3. at least the years 1976 through 1985 for forecast purposes.(5)Methodology for Forecasting Demand. The Council does not prescribe a particular methodology that must be used by all electric companies in forecasting fiiture demand. However, the selected methodology must be explained and justified by the forecasting company in accordance with the requirements of 980 CMR 7.03(5), Furthermore, the methodology must meet the applicable requirements of 980 CMR 7.09.
(a) The methodology shall be fully described, and such description shall include:1. identification of significant determinants of future demand, and of the means by which they were taken into account;2. description of data used in making the forecast and identification of the sources of such data;3. explanation of techniques employed for gathering, organizing, adjusting, and extrapolating from or interpreting the data, together with examples of the applications of such techniques;4. significant assumptions made and the reasons for making them; and5. a statement of the level of confidence of the company in dependent and independent variables, and explanation of how the statement of the level of confidence was arrived at.(b) The forecast shall be accompanied by explanations of whether and, if so, how it takes into account and how were obtained the following determinants of future demand: 2. price of electricity and price-elasticity of demand for electricity (including cost of fuels used in generation), both absolute and relative to that of other forms of energy that may be substituted for electricity in end uses;3. income of consumers, or value of the gross product of the service area;4. energy policies of the Commonwealth and of the federal government, both currently existing and possible for the future;5. strategies of the forecasting company for promoting consumption or consei-vation of electricity, or for modifying load cui-ves; and6. any other factors deemed relevant, such as investment by others in and use of capital goods that require electricity, including residential appliances (e.g., stoves, refrigerators, water heaters and heating and air conditioning equipment), industrial equipment and commercial equipment.(c) The forecast documentation shall be sufficiently explicit and complete to allow Council fully to understand the forecast from the information presented.(6)Contents of Forecast. The demand forecast shall include the following items for each of the years it covers:(a) the total annual electrical energy generated and consumed or to be generated and consumed in the forecast area, with breakdowns for each of the classes specified in 980 CMR 7.03(7);(b) the seasonal peak loads for both summer and winter, with breakdowns for each of the classes specified in 980 CMR 7.03(7)(a);(d) annual load duration curve, defined as the duration in hours of each level of kilowatt demand;(e) load profiles, defined as kilowatt loads to be graphed as a fianction of the time of day, for representative weekday in both January and August and for actual past winter and summer peak days or a forecast peak day in both January and August. Forecasts of the 980 CMR 7.03(6)(c) through (e) are not required to be disaggregated among the classes in 980 CMR 7.03(7).(7)Level of Aggregation. (a) Separate forecasts of total armual electrical energy generated and consumed and seasonal peak loads shall be made for each of the following customer classes;1. residential without electric heating;2. residential with electric heating;8. any other customer classes;9. losses, internal use and unaccounted for; and10. total energy requirements. The foregoing categories shall be defined to the extent possible as defined by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
(b) The forecast of total annual electrical energy consumed by industrial customers required by 980 CMR 7.03(6)(a) and 7.03(7)(a)4. shall be disaggregated by two digit Standard Industrial Classification Code.